Pay-on-results personal growth: first success
Update: Bob has recorded a 6-month follow-up here.
A few months ago, I hypothesized, “Radically effective and rapid emotional growth is possible with the right combination of facilitator and method”. E.g.: for resolving anxiety, agency, insecurity, need for validation.
To test my hypothesis, I began a pay-on-results coaching experiment. Clients pay only if they achieve their goal by working with me.
First bounty
Bob (pseudonymous) and I met at Manifest 2024 prediction market conference. Bob told me he had lifelong anxiety, and it was crushing his agency and relationships. He offered a $3k bounty if it could be resolved.
We spoke on July 5 for about four hours.
A month later:
I’m choosing to work on problems beyond my capabilities, and get excited about situations where my weaknesses are repeatedly on display.
I actually feel excited about entering social situations where chances of things going worse than I would want them to were high.
(Shared with permission.)
He felt ready to pay his bounty and sent the $3k.
6-month follow-up
One of my new friends said, “You’re so adventurous.” —Bob
Last summer, Bob came to me with lifelong anxiety that eight years of therapy hadn’t resolved. We spoke. Now almost six months later, I’ve caught up with him to understand what actually changed.
Other bounties hunting
See the up-to-date list.
Wtf?
“Why does your thing work so unusually well?” asks my mentor Kaj Sotala.
So, it definitely doesn’t work for every person x issue. Because of the bounty structure I’m incentivized to get really good at telling. I can help very well with issues relating to social insecurity, for example, and less well with issues of lack of agency about growth itself.
Why does it work unusually well for the ones it works for?
Firstly, I don’t know. I actually haven't studied other methods much.
But here are some things I can recall clients have been surprised by:
I don’t dig into trauma or ask much about the past. I focus on what the client is predicting in the present.
I don’t linger what the client bad things that the client doesn’t want — I direct them to what they do want for the things in your control.
I don’t try to convince them that their fears are irrational. I focus on making fears okay even if they do happen.
I don’t give object-level advice. Instead, mostly just Socratic Questioning.
I don’t speak that much. I try to say as little as possible, actually. At one point I think I got down to 3–7% speaking but I might be at like 15% now. Mostly I just try to get them to process efficiently.
I don’t cut off sessions because of timing. I allow them to come to a natural end. Sessions have ranged from 15 minutes to 4.5 hours.
I take inspiration from Predictive Processing: “the brain is a multi-layer prediction machine” (Scott Alexander). See Book Review: Surfing Uncertainty | Slate Star Codex and also Multiagent Models of Mind by Kaj Sotala.
I help clients integrate the predictions they want.
This post also describes my thinking well:
What do I actually do?
One of the things I do is somewhat similar to the process outlined in this post:
Mainly (roughly) something like:
“What would you like (for the things in your control?)”
Feeling that somehow.
Ask the feeling: “What bad thing happens?” & listen.
“How would you like to address that?”
If necessary, I ask Socratic Questions from my tacit knowledge.
Return to step 2.
Also I help clients stress-test their new models to notice and integrate blocks that will come up in everyday life before they happen.
Sometimes clients learn how to do the whole process on their own which is pretty cool.
In a way, I’m just teaching them how to introspect in a way that actually results in growth.
Alternative explanations
So far I’m seeing data that’s strongly in favor of it being easy for me to facilitate rapid growth for a certain kind of person and issue. But am I missing something here? If you have any ideas please let me know in the comments.
I’m definitely watching out for regression of growth over time, but I haven’t really seen it yet.
Feel Secure — Pay Only For Results
A man I met at a prediction market conference had lifelong social anxiety unresolved by 8 years of therapy. After working with me he became “excited about entering social situations where chances of things going worse than I would want them to were high”. (
Thanks to Kaj Sotala, Stag Lynn, and Ulisse Mini for reviewing. Thanks to Kaj Sotala, Brian Toomey, Alex Zhu, Damon Sasi, Anna Salamon, and CFAR for mentorship and financial support
Tweet thread, @ChrisChipMonk, chris@chrislakin.com, chrislakin.com/now
If you ever have an idle want for a disciple or apprentice or employee or something, please contact me. I'd really be interested in being able to help people like this.